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Finance & economics
財經板塊
Inflation: The drag from lags
通貨膨脹：滯后帶來的拖累
Rates are rising at unprecedented speed.
利率正以前所未有的速度上升。
How long until they bite?
在它們產生嚴重影響之前，還有多長時間？
If you want to impress central bankers, inject “long and variable lags” into a conversation and heave a heavy sigh.
如果你想給央行官員留下深刻印象，那就在對話中提到“漫長而多變的滯后”，然后沉重地嘆一口氣。
The phrase, coined by Milton Friedman, a Nobel-prizewinning economist, is sophisticated shorthand for the delayed and uncertain effects of monetary policy.
這個詞由諾貝爾獎得主、經濟學家米爾頓·弗里德曼首創，是對貨幣政策的延遲和不確定效應的復雜縮寫。
Raising rates, as most central banks are now doing, should lead to slower growth and lower inflation.
大多數央行現在正在實施的加息，應該會導致經濟增長放緩和通脹降低。
But it can take time for the full impact to be felt.
但要感受到加息的全面影響還需要時間。
Hence Friedman’s idea of a long lag.
因此，弗里德曼提出了長期滯后的觀點。
The variability, meanwhile, refers to the lack of a predictable interval between raise and result.
同時，可變性指的是無法預測加息和結果之間的差距。
Lags present an acute challenge at the moment.
目前，滯后是一個嚴峻的挑戰。
Tightening in the past few decades has been gradual, helping to mitigate uncertainty.
過去幾十年的緊縮措施一直是漸進的，有助于降低不確定性。
This time central banks are furiously ratcheting up rates.
但這一次，各國央行都在瘋狂地加息。
The Federal Reserve is on course to raise them from a floor of 0% to 4% by the end of this year, its steepest tightening in four decades.
美聯儲正按計劃在今年年底前將利率從0%提高到4%，這是40年來最大幅度的緊縮。
Economists including Ben Bernanke, a former chairman of the Fed and a new Nobel laureate, estimate lags between monetary policy and inflation can last as long as two years.
美聯儲前主席、新任諾貝爾獎得主本·伯南克等經濟學家估計，貨幣政策與通脹之間的滯后可能長達兩年之久。
The result is that America may be digesting the jumbo rate rises of the past few months well into 2024, by which time the economic picture will look different.
其結果是，美國過去幾個月大幅加息的影響可能會持續到2024年，到那時，經濟形勢將會發生變化。
This is one reason why some economists are calling for central banks to switch to smaller rate rises, if any.
這就是一些經濟學家呼吁各國央行如果要加息，就采取小幅加息的原因之一。
They want policymakers to survey the impact thus far in order to avoid needlessly adding to future pain.
他們希望政策制定者調查迄今為止加息的影響，以避免徒增未來的痛苦。
Yet the mere existence of lags cannot be an argument for inaction.
然而，存在滯后這一點不能成為不作為的理由。
They are a known unknown.
滯后是我們已知會出現的未知數。
Their precise duration may be uncertain but the fact that there will be a delay is well understood.
滯后持續的確切時間可能不確定，但滯后一定會出現這一點是眾所周知的。
Any decent model contains assumptions about this.
任何像樣的經濟模型都會預設滯后。
Fed officials expect to shift from raising to cutting rates in 2024 and 2025.
美聯儲官員預計將在2024年和2025年從加息轉向降息。
But they also expect inflation to continue to recede in both those years—an indication of how lags are baked into their forecasts.
但他們也預計通脹將在這兩年繼續降低--這表明他們的預測是考慮到了滯后的。
