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Moreover, an increase in central-bank’s transparency may be compressing lags.
此外，央行透明度的提高可能會縮短滯后時間。
In America mortgage rates had increased by a full percentage point even before the Fed had raised short-term rates.
在美國，甚至在美聯儲提高短期利率之前，抵押貸款利率就已經上升了整整一個百分點。
This has not happened in previous cycles, and represents the fastest pricing-in of expectations in at least four decades.
這在之前的經濟周期中從未發生過，而且是至少40年來最快的預期定價。
As a result, the housing market has had at least half a year to respond to higher mortgage rates.
房地產市場因此至少有半年的時間來應對抵押貸款利率的上升。
Sure enough, home sales, prices and new construction have all started to fall.
果不其然，房屋銷售量、價格和新開工量都開始下降。
In a way, the Fed is lagging the market: its rate increases are, in part, ratifying expectations that are already influencing activity.
在某種程度上，美聯儲正在落后于市場：它的加息措施在一定程度上是在認可已經在影響經濟活動的預期。
None of this is to minimise the risk from lags.
所有這些都不是為了將滯后帶來的風險降至最低。
Friedman believed they all but doomed counter-cyclical interventions.
弗里德曼認為，它們幾乎注定了反周期干預的失敗。
He viewed such attempts as “disturbances with a peculiarly high potential for mischief”.
他認為這樣的嘗試是“極有可能造成危害的干擾”。
Central bankers are more confident.
而央行官員們對此的信心要高一些。
But persistent inflation does underscore Friedman’s point about the challenges of getting policy right, whether tightening or easing.
但持續的通脹確實突顯了弗里德曼觀點的重要性，即無論是緊縮還是寬松政策，正確實施政策都具有挑戰性。
Today’s woes stem, in part, from aggressive stimulus in 2020 and 2021.
今天的困境部分源于2020年和2021年的激進刺激政策。
The mischief, in other words, can cut both ways.
換言之，這種干擾可以在兩方面都起作用。
Doves worry that excessive tightening will lead to a bad recession.
鴿派擔心過度緊縮將導致嚴重的經濟衰退。
Hawks fear that a premature halt will lead to continued bad inflation.
而鷹派擔心，過早停止加息將導致持續的惡性通脹。
Both worry the Fed will get its timing wrong again, just in diametrically opposite directions.
兩方都擔心美聯儲會再次抓錯時機，只不過擔心的方向截然相反。
